When will world realize zero population growth?

Metatron in your opinion do you think the world will see it soon?  How soon?

When the USA stops subsidizing its citizens and other countries for simply squirting out babies.  

Oops!   I didn't realize this was a private thread to Metatron.

No it is not private.  He said I was not up to date about the demographics.  So I'm asking him.

And I think you have identified one problem needing changing (a tough one for sure).

The report that got me thinking about the need to slow down growth is from a TV show I watched.  

The biggest problem about an oil shortage (if it is so) is regarding food production and distribution.  Oil by products fertilize crops and oil is used in it's distribution.  When oil is scarce other ways of growing and transporting food will be needed.  Will it be in place at the right time, or not?

start here:

http://web.inter.nl.net/users/Paul.Treanor/nohumans.html

It's less a question of zero population growth than population declines in developed nations.  However, there have been surprizing declines in birthrates even in 3rd world nations. 

I was just reading that Iran's leaders are frightened at their low birthrate and what it portends. 

What bugs me about this topic the most are stock market/economist types who simply ignore demographics and make all sorts of rosy predictions without considering demographic issues. How can you have GDP growth in a nation with more old people and fewer workers? or just fewer people generally? How does China become the biggest economy when the one child policy cuts into their work force and leaves them with a huge number of elderly?

metatron

The declines in any nation should not be used as a forecast for world population decline unless it can be proved that the decline is not due to exodus. 

Metatron what do you think of the scenario of lack of enough food production and distribution associated with a decline in oil?

Add along with that stripped farming land.  Will there be enough food for the world's people even if the population has no increase?  some people say no! not unless the problem is fixed immediately.  People should recognize there will be a problem.  I'm not talking about people who will draw closer to the god and stock food items.  I'm talking about science, technology, governments and the rich.  Are they doing enough to halt the downward trend?

I'm no expert but I always wondered how the demographics would be affected in countries like India and China that have more young men than marriageable women.

Let's slow down a bit...

First,  we're talking about declines in the birthrate - leading to net deaths over live births as in Russia, etc.  People are having fewer kids in nearly all of the developed world.  This is not about any exodus. Developed nations are, to the contrary, generally a draw for immigrants.

There will be some problems with food production but nothing extreme is very likely, at least in developed nations.  Go on a drive thru any New England state and take note of how much former farmland has gone back to nature, unused.  Higher agricultural productivity has greatly reduced the need for farm land.  Fewer people grow more food on less land now.

Oil, in relation to farm machinery and fertilizer, is a problem but need not be a disaster.  Huge amounts of nat gas are going to be coming on line soon.  $100 a barrel oil vs $15 dollar a 'barrel' nat gas equivalent is going to drive conversion in trucks, buses and eventually, cars.

Also, oil consumption in the US has declined due to cost and the economy and the same will likely happen in Europe as their economies sink into debt troubles. 

And...... there are other 'wild cards' that might emerge. For example, a really good, high charge density battery would change the world radically, as would a practical 'Cold Fusion' device.  Such things would defund terrorism, cause governments in the MidEast to collapse , eliminate global warming worries, deeply cut the trade deficit and remove power from oil companies and big banks.

In summary, don't buy into doom and gloom scenarios.  There are many good things that are likely to happen.

metatron

eliminate global warming worries

The damage is already done.  As sea levels rise and inundate coastal areas, expect mass exoduses and salinization of fresh water supplies and arable land.

Uh... no

Global warming, as a general trend across many decades, is science.  The hysteria about it is based on speculation .... and much of it is simply irresponsible. It's a shame that many of these academic fear-mongers have tenure that prevents them from being fired.

Sea levels actually dropped:

http://notrickszone.com/2011/08/31/der-spiegel-global-warming-now-causes-sea-level-drop-through-weather-shifts/

metatron

Meta, even if they dropped, that is only a temporary thing.  As the ice caps melt more, where is the water going to end up?  In the atmosphere as well?  Doubt it.

Climate change and rising sea levels is not speculation for the inhabitants of Kiribati.

http://www.climate.gov.ki/Climate_change_effects_in_Kiribati.html

There is a tendency in much of the world to view climate change as a slow and gradual process where the harmful effects will be able to prevented before they occur.  What is happening in Kiribati is evidence to the contrary. Kiribati is "like the canary in the coal mine in terms of the dramatic impact of climate change on a whole civilization of people,” says Harvard University biological oceanographer James J. McCarthy. “They didn't cause the problem, but they are among the first to feel it."

(wondering what rising sea levels have to do with zero population growth)...

But no, zero population growth wont be a problem...the Muslims in their adopted countries will continue to have many children while the rest of the countries dwindles.

Oz

Interesting topic N.drew...coming back to read later......I want to look at some of the links on here.

When the world population reaches 9 billion I expect that to be around the point where it starts to hold steady. This will take great leaps forward in technology and great political changes that bring about a more egalitarian society with no one starving, and a reasonable standard of living for all.

I am old enough to remember all the doom and gloom prophets of the past, how the whole world would be starving by the mid-seventies, how all the forests were dying because of acid rain etc etc

O.K many have starved, and that is plain evil. But it has far more to do with politics and who keeps firm hold of all the wealth than it does with the world's ability to feed itself. All the fuss about GM foods is mis-placed, it ignores the science and is just scare mongering, it is the way forward. 

You don't hear about acid rain now, why ? because those "experts" were WRONG. The world as a whole did not sink into starvation by the mid-sevnties why? because the "experts" were wrong.

Ever since Malthus the prophets of doom have driven the policies of ignorant politicians, because doom-mongering gets the most exposure in the media.

I have the utmost confidence that ordinary people, if they are not stifled by governments, bureucrats and bloody "experts" will find innovative ways to move the human race forward, ordinary people note, scientists are not that good at innovation when you look at the record, the Industrial Revolution was brought about by ordinary folk inventing machinery to do the work of many people, the scientists invented very little.

Not that I am rubbishing science, we need its discoveries, but ordinary mortals are the best at making those things work.

Global warming may not be the huge apocalyptic problem it has been painted either, we can adapt.

The future is bright , be positive !

So, I watched this SUPER funny MOVIE, that was kind-of on human population growth and where we are headed as a world.

IDIOCRACY was the movie.  

Watch it, and then comment on this thread!

Kiribati?  Read this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/5067351/Rise-of-sea-levels-is-the-greatest-lie-ever-told.html

If nothing else, consider the falsehood of predictions about sea level rises that have already failed - that should embarrass people like Al Gore, if they could be embarrassed.

On a more positive note, Muslims in the US overwhelmingly reject imposing Sharia as an alternative legal standard.  This is good and fends off extremism on all sides.  I also see 'Arab Spring" as very positive because it will finally force Arab nations to either adopt good governance or collapse into poverty and endless civil war. 

"Idiocracy" has a future hit TV show called "Ow, My Balls".  Take note of home video programs and consider that we've already arrived at that.

metatron